The Politics of Markets: Why Investors Can No Longer Ignore Politics

The Politics of Markets was more than a theme. It was a reality check.

For decades, investors have focused on economic growth, interest rates, inflation, and corporate earnings. Today, however, political developments have become equally important drivers of market performance. Elections move currencies. Policy decisions affect the cost of capital. Regulatory reform shapes investment opportunities. Geopolitical tensions can alter growth trajectories overnight.

This was the central message of the 2026 Summit, where renowned journalist, author, and broadcaster Mandy Wiener guided delegates through a morning of robust discussion, debate, and insight. Joined by Pieter du Toit, Assistant Editor of News24 and bestselling author, alongside a distinguished line-up of economists, fund managers and industry leaders, the Summit explored how politics and markets have become increasingly intertwined.

While viewpoints differed throughout, one conclusion was unavoidable: political developments are no longer operating on the sidelines of investment decision-making. They are increasingly shaping market outcomes, influencing investor confidence and determining where capital ultimately finds a home.

The Economic Price of Politics

Opening the investment discussion, Sanisha Packirisamy, Chief Economist at Momentum Investments, examined the relationship between politics and economic outcomes, highlighting how policy decisions influence inflation, business confidence, investment flows, and long-term growth.

Her presentation underscored that economic performance does not occur in a vacuum. Political choices influence everything from infrastructure development and regulatory reform to fiscal credibility and investor confidence. In turn, these factors determine a country's ability to attract investment and generate sustainable growth.

While acknowledging South Africa's ongoing structural challenges, Packirisamy pointed to encouraging progress in areas such as energy reform, logistics improvement, and governance initiatives. These reforms, while gradual, are critical building blocks for restoring investor confidence and unlocking economic potential.

A particularly important insight was her observation that investors often focus on economic indicators without fully appreciating the policy decisions that underpin them. Growth, inflation, and investment outcomes are not isolated economic variables; they are heavily influenced by the political environment in which business operates.

Her message was ultimately one of cautious optimism. While reform does not eliminate uncertainty, sustained progress can create the confidence necessary to attract capital, improve productivity and support stronger long-term economic growth.

State of the Nation: Progress Amid Persistent Challenges

The State of the Nation Panel broadened the discussion, bringing together leading commentators to assess South Africa's economic trajectory and reform agenda.

Chiedza Madzima of BMI, a Fitch Solutions company, noted that while South Africa's growth expectations have been revised lower following disappointing second-quarter GDP data, the country's structural reform programme remains firmly intact. The pace of implementation may vary, but the broader direction remains positive.

Discussion centred on some of South Africa's most critical institutions, including Eskom, Transnet, Home Affairs, and the role of monetary policy in maintaining economic stability.

One of the most compelling themes to emerge was the recognition that South Africa's challenge is not a shortage of capital. The country possesses deep financial markets, sophisticated institutions, and substantial pools of investment capital. The greater obstacle lies in effective execution, coordinated implementation and restoring confidence in the country's ability to deliver reform outcomes.

Packirisamy distilled the discussion into a simple but powerful framework: politics moves markets through three key channels - the price of goods, the cost of capital and the level of uncertainty facing investors.

The panel reinforced a growing reality facing markets globally. In a world characterised by fragmented politics, coalition governments and unpredictable policy outcomes, uncertainty is no longer merely a risk to be managed. It has become an investment factor in its own right.

Local Equity Panel: Different Investors, Different Conclusions

One of the day's most engaging sessions saw leading portfolio managers compare perspectives on opportunities within the SA equity market.

The panel featured Jithen Pillay (Allan Gray), Cor Booysen (Fairtree), Nic Hops (Coronation), Louis Kruger (36ONE), Simon Fillmore (Independent Securities), and Abdual Davids (Camissa Asset Management).

What emerged was a fascinating illustration of the diversity of thought that exists within professional investing.

Despite having access to the same market, the same information and many of the same investment opportunities, portfolio construction differed significantly. While several companies appeared repeatedly among the managers' highest-conviction holdings, the rationale behind those positions often varied markedly from one manager to another.

The discussion served as a valuable reminder that investing is not an exact science. Two experienced fund managers can analyse the same company and arrive at entirely different conclusions about its value, risk profile, and future prospects.

The panel also demonstrated why active management remains relevant. Successful investing requires more than identifying opportunities; it requires conviction, discipline and a willingness to take positions that differ from prevailing market sentiment.

Perhaps the most important lesson for delegates was that diversification remains one of the most effective tools available to investors. Even among highly regarded professionals, consensus is often the exception rather than the rule.

Pieter du Toit: Politics, Power, and the Future of South Africa

Closing the Summit, Pieter du Toit delivered a compelling keynote address examining the state of South African politics and its implications for investors.

Drawing on years of political reporting, du Toit explored how coalition politics, institutional reform and increasing accountability are reshaping South Africa's political landscape. He argued that the country's democratic institutions are entering a new phase, one characterised by greater scrutiny, shifting power dynamics and heightened public expectations.

While highlighting several political and governance challenges that remain unresolved, his assessment was not without optimism.

Du Toit argued that stronger institutions, transparency and accountability can improve governance and policy outcomes, providing a foundation for economic growth and investor confidence.

A recurring theme throughout his address was that investors should not become overly focused on political personalities or short-term political drama. Instead, attention should remain on the strength of institutions, the quality of governance and the consistency of policy implementation.

His keynote provided a powerful conclusion to the day's discussions, reinforcing the notion that politics and markets can no longer be viewed as separate spheres. Increasingly, understanding one requires understanding the other.

Looking Ahead

The GIB Investment Summit 2026 demonstrated that while political uncertainty remains a defining feature of the current investment environment, it also creates opportunities for informed and disciplined investors.

Across every session, from economic forecasts and policy discussions to market debates and political analysis, one message remained consistent: politics matters. It shapes confidence, influences capital allocation, affects growth, and increasingly determines market outcomes.

Importantly, the tone of the Summit was not one of pessimism. Rather, it was a recognition that investors must adapt to a world where political developments carry greater market significance than ever before. Understanding those forces, recognising progress where it exists and maintaining a disciplined long-term perspective will be essential in navigating the years ahead.

For investors, the challenge is no longer simply analysing markets. It is understanding the political forces that move them.